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| Fantasy Football Draft Tips from LeagueSafe.com |
 “Do The Opposite” got its name from the episode of Seinfeld in which George Costanza is so fed up with his life that he begins doing the exact opposite of everything that he’s done in the past. And, sure enough, upon doing so—wham—he gets a girl friend and gets hired by the Yankees.
Everyone clamors for running backs in the first few rounds—especially the first round. Owners with the balls to implement an Opposite Draft will eschew runners until the fourth round. In the first three rounds, you’ll take receivers, quarterbacks, and even tight ends. Then, with a bunch of elite players at the other positions, in the middle rounds, you’ll take a string of runners.
Although I could talk about it for hours, I’ll limit myself to two key planks in my position.
First, runners are more prone to injury and disappointment than any other position. Most readers will understand this intrinsically. But here’s some data for those that need convincing. Looking at the top 10 running backs taken in drafts over the last four years (data gathered from MockDraftCentral.com), only 15 scored double digits. Meanwhile, 15 runners had disastrous seasons, scoring six or fewer touchdowns. Nearly all of the top-10 runners were taken in the first rounds. So, getting six or fewer touchdowns from a top-10 runner is, indeed, disastrous.
The other positions, namely receiver and quarterback, however, had far fewer failures. Of the top 10 non-runners drafted over the past four years, only eight (!) failed to score seven or more touchdowns. And 14 scored double digits—just one fewer than the coveted “elite” runners.
Second, you can find sleeper runners in the middle rounds. Yes, you can. If I gave you, yes you, four cracks at a sleeper running back in rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7, couldn’t you find one, if not two, solid contributors? Of course you can.
Heck, you can even find solid contributors off the waiver wire. Ryan Grant, anyone? Think he was a fluke? How about Earnest Graham, Justin Fargas, Ron Dayne, and Derrick Ward? All were solid contributors for long stretches of the season, and none were drafted in your league.
And, you’re already stacked at the other positions, because you spent the first three rounds collecting elite players. So, when your sleepers/free agents runners hit, you’re sitting with a powerhouse team.
The Boring Draft strategy eschews glimmering younger players in favor of the old reliable workhorses. Remember last year, when everyone was high on unproven players like Laurence Maroney, Vincent Jackson, Cedric Benson, Calvin Johnson, Jerious Norwood…I could go on for a while here. Sure, some unproven guys emerge every year. But for every Adrian Peterson, there’s a half dozen DeAngelo Williams’. Side note: according to MockDraftCentral.com, Williams’ average draft position was one pick before Peterson. Ouch.
Rather than blow perfectly good draft picks on guys who have never proven themselves to be able to produce fantasy points, let’s take those tried-and-true veterans who have an ongoing relationship with the end zone. What they lack in upside, they make up with consistency.
Here’s what your roster might look like:
Round 1: Tom Brady or Brian Westbrook
Round 2: Terrell Owens or Peyton Manning
Round 3: T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Steve Smith
Round 4: Drew Brees or Torry Holt
Round 5: Edgerrin James or Willie Parker
Round 6: Marvin Harrison or Fred Taylor
Round 7: Matt Hasselbeck or Hines Ward
Round 8: Chester Taylor or Eli Manning
Round 9: Justin Fargas or Santana Moss
Round 10: Philip Rivers or Bernard Berrian
Round 11: Ricky Williams or Heath Miller
Round 12: Nate Burleson or Warrick Dunn
Round 13: Ryan Longwell or Adam Vinatieri
You may have noticed the dearth of running backs in this list. It’s because so few running backs have a track record of consistency (see “Do The Opposite”, above).
QB – Jake Delhomme. ADP QB ranking: 17. Charch’s ranking: 12.
When healthy, he’s a great quarterback, and his rehab from elbow surgery is going fine. A quick refresher of last year’s pre-injury stats: in 2.75 games, he racked up eight touchdown passes with just one interception. Losing Steve Smith for two weeks is a small bump in the road, but he’s got a plethora of receiving options, including three new options in Mushin Muhammad, DJ Hackett, and Jonathan Stewart.
RB – Ricky Williams. ADP RB ranking: 39. Charch’s ranking: 27.
People need to move past Ricky Williams’ past problems with drugs. There’s nobody on the Dolphins coaching staff who was around during those days, so got a clean (ahem) slate with head coach Tony Sporano. The Dolphins solidified an improving offensive line with top pick Jake Long. Look at what Joe Thomas did for Cleveland last year. And, everything we’ve seen so far indicates that Williams is pretty darn good. When discussing his two running backs, Dolphins head coach Tony Sporano compared Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to his duo in Dallas, Marion Barber and Julius Jones. Williams is built like Barber and Brown like Jones.
WR – Jabar Gaffney. ADP WR ranking: 52. Charch’s ranking: 30.
Gaffney made a strong move at the tail end of last season, displacing a lot of Donte Stallworth’s playing time, and eventually making Stallworth expendable in the offseason. Gaffney scored in four of the Patriots’ final six regular season games, and added another touchdown in the playoffs. He certainly was trending toward fantasy viability at the end of last year. Those solid numbers came despite the presence of Wes Welker and Randy Moss. Think of what could happen if the increasingly brittle Moss were to go down.
TE – Donald Lee. ADP TE ranking: 17. Charch’s ranking: 8.
Lee turned a corner in the second half of last season, catching five touchdowns in the final seven games. His improvements led to Bubba Franks being cut in the offseason, which opens the door for Lee’s full time use this year. Even with Franks on the roster last year, Lee caught a pass in every game, and caught multiple passes in 13 games. Inexperienced quarterbacks, like Aaron Rogers, tend to dump off to their safety valve tight end.
QB – Matt Hasselbeck. ADP QB ranking: 8. Charch’s ranking: 14.
Hasselbeck is a good quarterback, but there is such an alarming dearth of surrounding talent that I can’t envision him delivering consistent fantasy points. First, there’s no running game to keep defenses honest. No, Julius Jones doesn’t help in any real way. Opponents will key on Hasselbeck in every game. His offensive line was lousy last year, and the addition of Mike Wahle doesn’t improve it—just ask Jake Delhomme/Matt Moore/Vinny Testaverde/David Carr. Lastly, his receivers didn’t want to feel pressured during the mid-season rush, and got hurt now. Even when the Seattle wideouts are healthy, there isn’t a true No. 1 on the roster.
RB - Earnest Graham. ADP RB ranking: 18th RB. Charch’s ranking: 28.
Concerns abound. Jon Gruden has repeatedly described the Bucs running back situation as RBBC. Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett will play a role, and Caddy lurks as a second-half vulture. Gruden has a long history of RBBC, going back to his Oakland days. Remember Zack Crockett stealing goal line carries? In general, Tampa’s offense is already shaky, but what happens if Garcia goes down? Can Brian Griese really power an already aged, wobbly offense? Luke McCown? Chris Simms? Lastly, Graham’s new contract was very team friendly. Anyone who thinks the Bucs will use him because they paid him isn’t familiar with his deal.
WR – Joey Galloway. ADP WR ranking: 28. Charch’s ranking: 41.
This guy has danger written all over him. With a Sharpie. He didn’t participate in a single training camp practice due to a groin injury—a particularly dicey injury for receivers. His quarterbacks are old and already injured. And speaking of geriatrics, Galloway, a 13-year pro, is the high bidder on eBay for the season three Murder She Wrote VHS tapes. His receptions, yards, and touchdowns have declined for three straight years.
TE - Vernon Davis. ADP TE ranking: 8. Charch’s ranking: 15.
Let’s start by looking at his resume to date. Injuries? Check. Invisible stat lines? Check. Inconsistent performances? Check. Gee, sounds great so far! But, that’s the past. Let’s look ahead. Davis has gained an offensive coordinator who doesn’t know that the tight end position is on the field. In a recent interview, Mike Martz acknowledged that his offenses don’t highlight tight ends, and that he doesn’t expect that to change (although Martz says that he hopes Davis’ YPC will improve). And, then there’s the team’s dreadful quarterback position. Shawn Hill and Alex Smith should be battling to see who gets to do my taxes; not who gets to lead an NFL offense.
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Meet Charch
Paul Charchian is the:
1. Publisher of Fanball.com, the most popular fantasy sports information site on the Internet.
2. Creator of LeagueSafe.com
3. Host of Fantasy Football Weekly, an 14-year-old sports talk radio program airing Saturday mornings on KFAN-1130 in the Twin Cities.
4. Chairman of the Board of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association.
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